NYC Sea Level To Rise 6 Feet By 2100

According to a paper published by the New York Panel on Climate Change, projections have New York City sea level rising well above the global average for the next 100 years. According to this paper, projections for sea level rise in New York City could reach as high as 6 feet by 2100. Within the next 40 years, sea level rise in New York City could reach 11 to 12 inches. Does that mean you'll be pumping your basement soon? Not so much – but your kids might.

According to this report, the mean annual precipitation in New York City's Central Park has increased at a rate of approximately 0.8 inches per decade over 1900 to 2013. This brings mean annual precipitation up over this past decade to 8 inches.

Mean annual temperature has increased in Central Part at a rate of 0.3°F per decade (total of 3.4°F) over that same period of time. This trend, they say, has varied "substantially" over shorter periods of time.

This data suggests we're getting more precipitation at the same time as we're getting a hotter New York City. This study also suggests that NYC will get heat waves at a rate 3x as much as the city does now by the 2080s. Meanwhile "extreme cold events" will lessen.

Above, from the official report: "New York City sea level rise observations and projections. Projections shown are the low estimate (10th percentile),middle range (25th to 75th percentiles), and the high estimate (90th percentile). The historical trend is also included. Projecti onsare relative to the 2000 to 2004 base period."

Seal level rise in New York City "is a significant hazard," says this study. Risk will be centered in on "costal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems."

Sea level rise in New York City has increased at nearly twice the rate of the rest of the world over the past decade. NYC averaged 1.2 inches per decade (about 1.1 feet over the past 100 years) while the global rate rings in closer to 0.5 to 0.7 inches per decade.

If you plan on living on the coast anywhere around New York's 5 boroughs, you may want to prepare yourself. Over the next 70 years, projected sea level changes are said to "increase the frequency and intensity of costal flooding." They also suggest that this will lead to "between a doubling and an approximately 10- to 15-fold increase in the frequency of the current 100-year coastal flood by the 2080s."

Above, from the official report: "Potential areas that could be impacted by the 100-year flood in the 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, and 2100 based on projections of the high-estimate 90th percentile NPCC2 sea level rise scenario. Map developed using the static approach."

The NPCC 2015 Report Executive Study can be found in its entirety as published by Wiley this week.