MIT Study Suggests Illegal Production Of CFCs Has Continued

Researchers at MIT have discovered that ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons known as CFCs stay in the atmosphere for less time than previously estimated. CFCs were phased out globally in 2010, and the research suggests they should be in the atmosphere in much lower concentrations than recent measurements suggest. The study suggests that new and illegal production of CFCs has likely occurred in recent years.

The study specifically points out new emissions of CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113 that would represent a violation of the Montréal Protocol. That protocol was designed to phase out the production and consumption of CFCs along with other ozone-damaging chemicals. The study estimates that new global CFC-11 emissions is higher than previous studies reported.

MIT's study is also the first to quantify new global emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113. Lead study author Megan Lickley says the team found total emissions coming from new production is around 20 gigagrams a year for each of those molecules. The study also identified new emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113, which Lickley says were previously overlooked.

In the past, CFCs were used commonly in manufacturing refrigerants, aerosol sprays, chemical solvents, and building insulation. When they are emitted into the atmosphere, the chemicals can stay in the stratosphere interacting with ultraviolet light and releasing chlorine atoms that erode the protective ozone layer surrounding the earth. Today, most CFCs are emitted by "banks," old refrigerators, air conditioners, and insulation manufactured before the ban.

For the study, the researchers calculated the amount of CFCs remaining in banks today by developing a model analyzing industry production of CFCs over time and how quickly various types of equipment release CFCs. That value was then incorporated in the current recommended values for the lifetime of the chemicals to calculate concentrations of bank-derived CFCs that could be expected in the atmosphere over time.

The team says the calculated lifetimes for CFC-11, 12, and 113 are 49 years, 85 years, and eight years respectively, compared to current values of 52, 100, and 85 years respectively. The results imply emissions are likely higher than the best estimates have suggested.