How Much Electricity Does The US Get From Canada (And What Could Tariffs Mean)?

U.S. tariffs might impact your wallet more than simply your next tech purchase; they might also make the electricity you use to power it more expensive. This became an all-too-certain reality for some U.S. citizens this week, as the debate over U.S. tariffs on Canada reached a fever pitch, with the two governments sparring over what could be the defining economic policy of the Trump Administration's first months in office. Over two days, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced and suspended a 25% tariff on electricity exports to three U.S. states, prompting President Trump to announce a series of retaliatory tariffs (and rescissions) on Canadian steel and aluminum imports.

Although some were optimistic that the administration would continue to retract its trade threats, the United States went ahead with its 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imports, prompting reciprocal measures by some of America's closest trade partners. Canada, for its part, responded that it would impose a reciprocal 25% measure on a range of U.S. products, from steel and computers to sports equipment and cast-iron products — a tax that Canada predicts will amount to nearly $30 billion. The European Union also jumped into the fray, raising taxes on select food items like beef and poultry, as well as on motorcycles, Bourbon, and jeans.

The volley of tariffs between the two countries will likely come to a head on Thursday when Premier Ford is scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington to discuss a potential trade agreement between the two neighbors. The immediate outlook of both countries' energy sectors might depend on the outcome of the conversation. 

As a staunch opponent of President Trump's tariff policies, Premier Ford warned in his first press conference since his reelection as the leader of Canada's most populous province that retaliatory tariffs would be at the forefront of his approach. "If they want to try to annihilate Ontario," the Premier said, "I will do anything — including cutting off their energy — with a smile on my face." These remarks came as President Trump's then-latest tariffs, which included a 10% tax on energy imports to the U.S., were set to come into effect.

A week later, Ford made good on his threat, imposing a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to New York, Minnesota, and Michigan. Initial reports from the Premier's office estimated that the tariffs would generate roughly CA$300,000 ($208,000 USD) to CA$400,000 ($277,000 USD) in revenue for the Ontario energy sector. For the 1.5 million Americans impacted by the tariffs, Ford estimated a CA$100 ($69 USD) increase in their monthly energy bill. 

Trump responded with a tariff hike of his own: a 50% tax on Canada's aluminum and steel industry. However, after Premier Ford and Secretary Lutnick spoke, Ontario rescinded its electricity tariffs pending further discussions between the two sides. As a result, the administration went ahead with its original 25% tax — a move that may prove particularly devastating for its northern ally, as Canada was responsible for 23% and 58% of all U.S. steel and aluminum imports, respectively, in 2024. 

Whether Ontario will add its electricity tariffs to the reciprocal tariffs its nation announced remains to be seen, but considering Premier Ford threatened to "shut the electricity off completely," if President Trump escalated the trade war, it certainly isn't off the table.

The tariff tussle between the two North American allies poses a serious threat to the energy security of both nations. According to the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER), the energy trade between the U.S. and Canada — including crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum, and electric power — amounted to a whopping $142 billion ($204.9 billion Canadian) in 2023. Only a fraction of this total comes from electric power, however, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stating that electricity sales from Canada to the U.S. amounted to $3.2 billion ($4.6 billion Canadian) in 2023, and $1.2 billion ($1.7 billion Canadian) in reverse. The importance of this exchange, however, vastly outweighs its economic totals, as the cross-border interconnectivity of the two counties' grids makes electricity tariffs an important issue.

As it stands, the American and Canadian energy grids are intertwined through three cross-border interconnections sporting 86 power lines. This interwoven grid system essentially links two forms of electricity production, connecting Canada's hydroelectric grid to an American one dominated by natural gas. Throughout the U.S. power grid's history, it was built to ensure that both countries maintain reliable access to electricity supplies. This connection is one born partially of convenience, as Canada's cold winters and the U.S.'s scorching summers create fluctuating levels of demand between the two countries. An integrated grid ensures that electricity flow remains balanced and stable year-round. As such, a degree of interdependence is baked into both nations' electricity grids, thus mutually raising the stakes of a potential electricity war.

According to the EIA, the U.S. has operated in an electricity trade deficit with Canada for the past two decades. In 2016, for instance, the United States imported 75.53 terawatt hours (TWh) of Canadian electricity while exporting only 9.44 TWh. However, the inequality of this trade relationship has steadily decreased since then, as persistent droughts and dropping natural gas prices have made America's energy stores more competitive with Canada's hydro-powered electricity, resulting in the U.S. importing only 32.77 TWh more than it exported in 2023. By 2024, the EIA estimated that Canada supplied 27 TWh of electricity to the United States — roughly a third of its reported imports a decade earlier.

Admittedly, these numbers constitute only a small part of each country's energy consumption. According to the EIA, less than 1% of the total electric generation of the U.S. and Canada comes from their respective partners. For comparison, the United States alone consumed 4,000 TWh in 2022. However, the importance of this connection far exceeds these numbers, as it plays an integral part in balancing the two nation's grids, ensuring that consumption and production match. It also insulates each country from wild swings in supply — a reality perhaps best illustrated by Canada's previously mentioned increase in American electricity imports following reduced reservoir levels. This relationship is reciprocal, as Canadian hydropower is a key cog in insulating U.S. electricity against changes in natural gas prices. 

If the escalating tariffs levied by the United States and Canada in recent days stand, it won't be surprising to see Ontario act on its 25% electricity threat. As Premier Ford told NBC when he initially announced the tariff, "If he (President Trump) wants to destroy our economy and our families, I will shut down the electricity going down to the U.S."

Ontario can substantially change the electric fortunes of several U.S. states due to its ownership of the provincial power company Hydro One – one of the three largest hydropower companies in the country. According to the Ontario government, the tariffs would substantially raise the electricity bills of 1.5 million consumers across America's northern states. Newsweek noted that U.S. Census statistics showed that tariffs would most heavily impact cities in Eastern New York, as Buffalo, Ogdensburg, and Rochester depend on Ontario for large portions of their electricity supplies. Reportedly, Buffalo and Ogdensburg imported 11.7 million and 6.02 million MWh, respectively, in 2024 alone. 

Electricity tariffs might not stop with Ontario, however, as Quebec has flirted with the idea of imposing tariffs of its own. Some experts noted that the province's electricity supplier, Hydro Quebec, ceased sales to its New England partners following President Trump's tariffs, although company officials stated that the stoppage was price-driven rather than political. In total, broad electricity tariffs could impact a host of major U.S. cities, including Seattle, Washington, Portland, Maine, and Great Falls, North Dakota.

Ford, for his part, publicly called for Canada to extend its tariffs to other forms of energy, suggesting that Alberta should tax the 4.3 million daily barrels of oil it exports to the United States. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, however, presented an alternative vision Wednesday, positing that the United States and Canada further their energy cooperation and expanding the existing pipeline network to accommodate an additional 2 million barrels a day. According to the CER, Smith's province accounts for 87% of Canada's $124 billion yearly oil exports, 97% of which is destined for the U.S.

If Canada were to expand its tariffs to include the entirety of the country's U.S. energy exports, the move would have consequences for citizens of both countries. For instance, the energy trade makes up nearly a quarter of Canada's global exports, including 58% of the hydrocarbons and 85% of the electricity imported by the U.S. For their southern counterparts, exports to Canada constituted a whopping $349 million last year, by far the largest number for any U.S. trade partner.

Although the Trump administration paused its oil and gas tariffs until April 2 on Wednesday, potential action from Ontario and other Canadian provinces threatens to escalate an already budding trade war. Unfortunately, it may turn out that the biggest loser in the trade war is neither Trump nor Ford, but their voters.